UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.