From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Within the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.